ISLAMABAD: With only a few days until the union government’s Finance Bill 2023-24 is tabled, the National Accounts Committee (NAC) meeting set for Thursday (today) has been rescheduled.
Details
According to the journal, the order to postpone was made under the guise that some census data will be used in the calculation of the preliminary numbers.
Despite a 25% drop in large-scale manufacturing (LSM) output in March, sources indicated that measures were underway to turn the potentially negative growth figures into positive ones.
According to the sources, the increased base would harm the preliminary growth projections for the current fiscal year.
The most recent GDP growth projections
“The latest estimates indicate that provisional GDP growth is negative so far in the range of -0.8% to -1% for the current fiscal year 2022-23,” the sources said, adding that it was unclear how the provisional GDP growth data will be converted to positive.
The NAC meeting may be rearranged for Friday (tomorrow), but the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has yet to make an official notification.
Pakistan’s GDP growth goal for 2022-23
On the eve of the budget, Pakistan projected GDP growth of 5% for the current fiscal year 2022-23, using the following growth targets:
- Agriculture (3.9%)
- Manufacturing (7.1%)
- Services (5.1%)
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank had anticipated GDP growth in the 0.5% range for the current fiscal year.
In its revised predictions for the current fiscal year, the Ministry of Finance predicted 0.8% growth.
Agriculture sector development may also stay negative, with reliance on wheat output. Credit to the private sector from banks has reached a new low in the services sector, standing at just Rs72 billion in the current fiscal year, compared to Rs800 billion in the same period the previous year.
